Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on the last day of trading for the year on Dec. 31, 2024 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Stock futures were higher on Monday as trading got underway for 2025, with hopes that the market can regain the momentum that propelled the S&P 500 to log two-straight years of annual gains above 20%.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 362 points, or 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures added nearly 1%. Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 1.2%.
Although stocks fell in the final days of 2024, the year still produced solid returns. The S&P 500 surged 23% last year, while the 30-stock Dow added nearly 13%. Fueled by the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and interest rate cuts, the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 29% advance.
Members of the so-called Magnificent Seven were behind much of the market’s action in 2024. AI chip darling Nvidia notched a 171% gain for the year, while iPhone maker Apple rose 30%. But these big gains led to some profit-taking at the year’s end. The S&P 500 recorded four-straight down days to cap the year — a first since 1966.
All this means, it will be difficult for a “Santa Claus rally” to materialize. That well-known market indicator is usually characterized by rising stocks in the five final days of a calendar year and the first two trading days of January. The broad index rises an average of 1.3% during this period and has finished higher almost 80% of the time, according to Dow Jones market data going back to 1950.
The tech-heavy nature of 2024’s rally has raised some concern that the move is unsustainable, but more optimistic investors point to continued economic strength and earnings growth as reasons that the market still has room to run.
“The argument that irrational exuberance, animal spirits and bubble-like optimism were the primary drivers behind the market’s levitation seem largely inconsistent with stronger data and more subdued recession risks,” UBS strategist Jonathan Golub said in a note to clients Thursday.
“Either way, it is clear that investors are extremely optimistic as we enter 2025. Maybe this exuberance is reason for concern. Maybe 2025 will be another gangbuster year,” Golub continued.
The holiday-shortened week has been light on economic data, but Thursday will bring a look at weekly jobless claims that will offer a read on how the labor market is faring.
